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Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season
Welcome I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC) July Is here, but the activty isn't. Ryan1000 01:15, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression(08W, Goring) Tropical Depression 8 (Goring) And after a period of silence, here comes TD 8 in the WPac. It hasn't been numbered 08W yet, but It's PAGASA name is Goring, and If it becomes named by the JMA, it will be named Ma-on, last used in 2004. Ryan1000 19:32, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Yipee! I've been waiting for activity! Now we have some! Time to chat away... Andrew444 12:53, July 10, 2011 (UTC) :Ah, I don't think this thing has much of a chance, its already made its way into China, and (Goring) will die away later today, likely. I personally don't see any retirees as of yet; Aere may have killed lots of people and caused lots of damage, but having a PAGASA name retired doesn't mean its JMA name will be, and although Sarika caused 248 million in damage and killed 29, China has seen worse than her, and so have the Philipines for Aere. The all-time record for retirees in the WPac was 5, in 2006. We had Chanchu, which kicked the living sh!t out of China with over 260 deaths and 680 million in damage. Ewiniar, though not retired, caused 1.5 billion in damage and killed over 100 people due to devastating flooding in South Korea. Bilis was a weak TS that killed over 800 and caused around 4.4 billion in damage due to devastating flooding in Taiwan and mainland China. Then, once we thought it was over, Saomai came calling. Saomai hit China as a 150 mph monster, China's strongest landfaling typhoon in history, and with 2.5 billion in damage and 458 deaths, was considered the worst typhoon to hit China in 50 years. The parade of destructive storms in 2006 raged on with Shanshan, a powerful category 4 storm that struck Japan as a weakening category one, causing 11 deaths and 2.5 billion in damage. Then, Xangsane came raging towards the Philippines. Xangsane exploded when it came ashore in the Philippines as a 145 mph monster, killing hundreds in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, and the worst typhoon to hit the city in 11 years. It slowed down into a category 2 before making landfall in Vietnam and killed 71 people there. Then, once the Philippines thought it was all over, Cimaron came calling. It was the strongest landfall of the season, devastating Luzon as a 160 mph monster, and killing several people in addition to causing widespread destruction. Just as Cimaron was dissipating, Chebi, a 135 mph typhoon raged into the Philipines, causing further destruction and several fatalities just after Cimaron raged ashore. As the season appeared to be closing up, the mightiest storm of worldwide 2006 was building up in the WPac. On November 25, tropical storm Durian formed in the Philippine Sea. It slowly intensified but became a very large and powerful storm as it raced towards the Philipines. The storm crashed into the country with winds of 155 mph, causing more than 13.5 billion dollars in damage and killing 1,500. It was one of the worst typhoons ever known to strike the country. After Durian, the final storm of the parade of destructive landfalls was Utor. It struck the southern Philippines as a minimal major typhoon with winds of 115 mph. It caused signifigantly lower damage than the other storms of the season due to it's smaller size, quick movement, and lack of buildup in the area it affected. :At the end of 2006, Chanchu, Bilis, Saomai, Xangsane, and Durian were all retired. The combined storms in 2006 killed nearly 2,700 people and caused roughly 35.8 billion in damage. It goes to show the WPac can be much worse than where it has been now in 2011. Ryan1000 ''16:17, July 10, 2011 (UTC) And after such a (short) life, (Goring) is down and out. Now we're slowly beginning to sleep until mid-late August. I guess we have a chance of some more activity, but nothing is expected over the next two days. ''Ryan1000 ''22:23, July 10, 2011 (UTC) 1106 Ma-on (08W) Tropical Depression 08W And as soon as (Goring) dissipated, we have a new one out there. This one is already numbered 08W, and unlike (Goring), this one has a pretty good chance to become Ma-on as it heads west. It's currently forecast to become a category 1 storm, and it's future from there is uncertain. ''Ryan1000 17:53, July 11, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm (JMA/JTWC) Ma-on Both JMA and JTWC now have this as a TS. The reason I'm here is because I just saw the model runs, and this storm is of epic proportions. ECMWF has this at probably C4-C5 hitting Kyushu. GFS has this curving further east, and so does the Canadian. What I'm trying to say is, this could be one of the most intense hurricanes to hit Japan for a long time. This is dangerous, and I think they should be ready for at least a C3 typhoon. 'Darren23 | 16:48, July 12, 2011 (UTC) Heh, strangely enough, the last Ma-On of 2004 was a strong category 2 storm that sucker-punched Tokyo real good, but Japan doesn't often see storms of epic proportions. The mightiest typhoon in Japanese history was Super Typhoon Vera of 1959. That storm blasted southern Japan as a 160 mph monster super typhoon, killing over 5,000 and causing over 260 million dollars in damages. Japan was lucky that the ridge of high pressure was over central Japan at the time; if it was further out to sea, Tokyo could have been torn apart from that monster storm. The last category 4 landfall in Japan was Super Typhoon Jean of 1965, if I remember correctly, it hit them as a 150 mph storm, but the impacts weren't as severe as from Vera. Either way, this storm needs to be watched out for. BTW, I de-archived Sarika and Haima, they weren't that long of archives, and now I put them in the April-June archive. ''Ryan1000 ''17:00, July 12, 2011 (UTC) Gah, upgrade it already, JMA! How is Ma-On not a typhoon? It's very threatening, and the current forecast calls for at least a category 3 as it takes aim at Taiwan and China throughout next week. ''Ryan1000 ''13:49, July 13, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Ma-On(JTWC/JMA) I've mentioned it as a typhoon now by the JTWC, but the JMA is to stubborn to upgrade it themselves... pisses me off. >:( 'Ryan1000 17:43, July 13, 2011 (UTC) It's officially a typhoon. JMA just upgraded it a few minutes ago. I actually think Ma-on will go further west than the JTWC indicates, and I think it may even get close to 130W. Darren23 | 18:58, July 13, 2011 (UTC) Ma-On will likely intensify a little further as it heads westward and then possibly northward towards Japan, but how strong it gets will determine how bad it will be for them. Ryan1000 20:35, July 13, 2011 (UTC) Not been paying attention here recently. But yes, Ma-on is a Category 1 typhoon on the SSHS. Maybe it'll reach Category 2 as it moves along. (This is off topic, but "Ma-on" was submitted by HK, and means 'horse saddle') Andrew444 02:28, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::This is also off-topic, which kind of tree does Chan-Hom mean? :P Anyways, Ma-on is very large in size, and is predicted to at least category 4 status (SSHS). Either way, I won't be surprised if this become a cat 5 or even our next Tip. It got tons of potential. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:47, July 14, 2011 (UTC) I think this is VERY bad, both GFS and Euro brings a CATEGORY 5 EQUIVALENT typhoon right over the same general route Tip and Vera has been on. Both GFS and Euro underestimates tropical cyclones a lot, and this clearly doesn't mean anything good. Just have to keep our eyes open and prepare for the worst. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:57, July 14, 2011 (UTC) :Well, for one thing, they aren't intensity models. I can't access STIPS, so my favorite intensity model (and the most used by the NHC and JTWC) unavailable. But judging from the warm SST's it's under and it's relatively slow speed, I would not be surprised if it becomes a Cat 5 (I would be more surprised if it didn't) This could be, again, a storm of epic proportions, something not seen in Japan that often. The storm will be traveling much slower than a normal typhoon at that latitude would, meaning a Japan impact would take days (about 3 days) rather than six-twelve hours. The last typhoon to hit Japan at that intensity was Cat 5 Melor which hit Japan barely as one, and it zipped past it. This time, there will be no longwave troughs zipping it away from Japan. They're gonna have to bear the brunt of this, and I don't see the future being good for them. I see it making landfall either on Eastern Kyushu or Shikoku, but if it does go further east than forecast, it may hit Osaka/Kobe/Kyoto or even Tokyo directly, which certainly ain't that good. Darren23 | 06:47, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow... it's not even the end of July, yet we already have 2 super typhoons (assuming Ma-on becomes onee). Is this incredible? I think it is. And a Japan hit, this puts Babe '77, Tip '79, etc... into my head. And the earthquake, + this, disaster. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 11:43, July 14, 2011 (UTC) :::Um, no. Not really. Darren23 | 14:56, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::And now I have news that's not so good: Ma-on is a Category 3 now, and it's just getting worse from here. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 21:02, July 14, 2011 (UTC) :Dry air is certainly slowing it's intensification down, but soon there should be no reason this doesn't become a category 5 storm on it's way to Japan. Forecast shows it being a category 3 storm at landfall in Japan. Not good. Yqt1001 21:12, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::I'm actually starting to doubt it will reach Category 5 status, as it doesn't have that much time to do so (a 30 kt increase in 2 days or so). I think it might reach 135 kts, but I think 140 is asking too much from mother nature. But whatever the case, it's going to be very very dangerous. I have a very bad feeling about this storm. Northern Japan already had a $200 Billion dollar disaster... I just hope this isn't Southern Japan's. Again, it could be a storm of epic proportions. Darren23 | 21:24, July 14, 2011 (UTC) :::July typhoons normally aren´t ferocious monsters for Japan... The strongest typhoon ever known to hit Japan in July was 110 mph typhoon Man-Yi in 2007. I don´t know if this storm will kick the living shit out of Japan when it does hit, but Vera was a category 5 landfall in September of 1959, and the last category 4 landfall in Japan was Jean of 1965, 46 years ago. Jean formed in July-August, so it isn´t out of the question Ma-On could rip apart Japan as a category 3 landfall at least, but the chances are not good for it to maintain its intensity as it heads northward. We also have a new depression (09W) that could become future Tokage in the next few days as well. Man, when the WPac is at their greatest, you can only sit back and say, wow. Ryan1000 22:44, July 14, 2011 (UTC) Climatology doesn't really matter at this point. It doesn't matter if past storms have done less damage. I'm saying this might be a storm of epic proportions because: A) This storm will be traveling much slower than a usual Japan storm. B) Waters are just about warm enough to support a weakening major typhoon landfall C) This will traverse almost the entirety of southern Japan near or above typhoon intensity. And how is this WPAC at it's greatest? There are only what, 2 tropical systems, and the big one is struggling to fight intrusion? And how is this the greatest when Ma-on is threatening land? Darren23 | 00:40, July 15, 2011 (UTC) : Well, they can be worse, via 1997, but when the WPac spits out lots of storms, it´s rather amazing(not really fun)but just amazing to see. Even so, Japan sees typhoons pretty much every year Darren, and I don´t know if Ma-On will be an exeptional storm like Vera was, nor do I think it will be, but I can´t rule out the fact it could be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan so early in the season. Where it hits will also determine how much impact it will do. In the case of Man-Yi, it was a powerful 110 mph storm when it came ashore, but it only briefly made landfall on the southern end of Kyushu, so overall damages were localized and insevere. Shanshan of 2006 somehow caused 2.5 billion dollars in damage to Japan despite barely being a category one when it struck northern Kyushu. Japan is very selective when it comes to retired names, and the last name they retired was Nabi in 2005, which caused less impact than many other storms in the past for Japan. Nabi was the only name retired from the request of Japan since the JMA started retiring names in 2000. Will Ma-On join that list? We will see. I´m not saying at all Ma-On will not be bad, but the question is: how bad? This storm could dump a trainload of rain to Japan(for the record, Nabi was Japan´s wettest typhoon in history) but Ma-On is a different ball game to worry about as it slowly but surely heads towards Japan in the next several days. Ryan1000 00:58, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::Yes, I know it get's hit once every year (or more... 2004). But it's like Mexico or um... the Caribbean Islands. They get hit every year, but you always watch out for the big one. Ma-on has some potential to be the big one, and I think it's better to say that it could be very bad than to doubt if it will be bad at all. This is a different storm. That's why I don't think it will act like most others. Most others zip on by. This will take a while passing through about 3/4 of Japan. There's also that ominous feeling about that storm. It's taking it's time, it's not rushing to intensify fast (although it probably will if a few hours). Slow but "steady". I also don't think JMA has this right. I honestly believe it is going to make landfall either in Kyushu or Shikoku because the setup seems to indicate it. I really think that Japan should start preparing for a very strong, slow storm. Darren23 | 04:24, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::The wind ist not the main issue I fear amid the fact that Japan is one of the best disaster prepared countries in the world. What I fear is the associated rain which eventually will end up over eastern Honshu spilling over Fukushima. Though East Honshu is far away from the area which probably gets a landfall or a direct hit but I fear that Tepco hasn't secured all the waste and all the debris at the power plant effectively enough to prevent spilling of more waste water into the Pacific. -- 06:35, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::Oh... Ma-On's a Category 4 now. I think it'll be a super typhoon again. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 14:09, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::It hasn't been a Super typhoon before. And so what if Japan is one of the best disaster prepared countries in the world. The $200 billion earthquake demolished large parts of Japan, and killed many many people. What I'm trying to say is look. If the JTWC forecast is correct, it would be impacting Osaka/Kobe/Kyoto, Nagoya, and eventually the Tokyo area. And the geography may not be favorable for them. Those bays are just going to funnel in that storm surge. The wind is also going to be strong, and the rain is going to be very heavy. And with its wind radius, it could potentially hit a large part of Japan (3/4 of it). Again, we have to stop saying it's not gonna be that bad when it might be very bad. It's better to be prepared than to doubt a storm like this. Darren23 | 16:36, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::The last time Japan was hit by a slow-moving big storm was Fitow in 2007, but the thing about Fitow was it was a weak(cat 1) yet large storm. It delivered lots of heavy rain and flooding to Japan, but the only area affected by it was the region around Tokyo where it made landfall. It killed 7 and did about a billion dollars in damage but Tokyo(and Japan overall) have seen worse than Fitow. Ma-On is certainly worth watching for, but it probrably won´t hit Tokyo directly. Southern and central Japan may be a different story though. Ryan1000 16:50, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Visible satellite is becoming readily available, and while its eye isn't cloud free yet, the structure is very organized. Deep convection has yet to develop on the western quadrant, since Ma-on is very large. T-numbers are around 5.1 but the weakening flag is on. True, Ma-on has weakened 115kts to 105kts and 937mb to 944mb but I think it's just temporary. Whether Ma-on is going to be our next Tip or not, we'll just have to wait and see. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:39, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Based on the sattelite imagery, Ma-On is clearly intensifying, and I would be surprised if it doesn´t become a cat 5, even if it´s only brief. Japan needs to watch out for this monstorous slow-moving storm over the next couple of days. Ryan1000 05:25, July 16, 2011 (UTC) The storm is... beautiful (though not as beautiful as full fledged annular hurricanes, but good enough) Again, I won't be surprised if it reaches C5 intensity, but I doubt it. Right now, I estimate the storm to be at 115 kts (ADT average). A 25kt jump just doesn't seem like something this storm can do now. From now until it makes landfall SST's are going to fall... albeit steadily. It's no longer going to be in >30C waters. Rapid intensification is just so hard to predict... it can happen. It just doesn't seem like it's gonna happen with this storm. I have a feeling this storm will reach 125-130kt. Any higher, again, just seems too much to ask for. Hopefully, it doesn't actually strengthen so it'll be weaker when it hits Japan, but I don't think that's gonna happen either. Japan has got to watch this one carefully. Darren23 | 05:59, July 16, 2011 (UTC) Doesn't look good for Japan. OWEN2011 16:19, July 16, 2011 (UTC) : It appears Ma-On is undergoing an ERC now, but that won´t hinder what it coud do to Japan. A big, slow-moving monster like this one definitely bears watching. I am also doubting we will see a cat 5 out of Ma-On, but it´s hard to predict if it will rapidly intensify or not over the next day or two. Either way, stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:00, July 16, 2011 (UTC) : Ma-on's now only a Category 3 typhoon, but still should be watched. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 17:49, July 16, 2011 (UTC) 1107 Tokage (09W; Hanna) Tropical Depression 9 OMG... the WPac is spitting out TC's like crazy. Not sure where this is, but I hope this is not anything bad. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 11:43, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::That ain't surprising... it's WPAC. Darren23 | 14:41, July 14, 2011 (UTC) :::I fixed the heading because it isn't TD9W, JMA is just calling it a TD. Their numbering system doesn't include TD's JTWC still has a TCFA on this. Darren23 | 14:56, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::::I changed it just to include TD 9(by Japan) but it´s not 09W yet. Ma-On is still the dominant system over this storm; it´s currently just east of Luzon, but it likely won´t get that strong at all. Ryan1000 01:11, July 15, 2011 (UTC ::::Depending on how fast the system is developping it could pull a Fujiwhara what at least could postpone the moment when Ma-on is turning polewards. I don't think we'll se a merger but I think that Ma-on could make a shift to the left (that is against the anticipated track after say 36 to 48 hours from now). -- 06:40, July 15, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tokage (Hanna) :::::My, my, the WPac has been going crazy since May. Now we have the seventh tropical storm of this season. It is named Tokage, a name submitted by Japan. It means "lizard". Also, PAGASA has decided to name this Hanna. I don't see a major cyclone out of this. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 14:19, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::: :::::Probably going to absorbed by Ma-On soon. 15:48, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::::No no no, it hasn't been going crazy since May! There have only been like what... 7 storms. That really isn't that much. Darren23 | 16:29, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Much worse has happened than this... and this thing looks like shit, to be honest. Ryan1000 16:50, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::JTWC has downgraded Tokage into a tropical depression, it has completely no chance of strengthening, since Ma-on is going to absorb it in about 24 hours from now. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:32, July 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::You know what's funny, T-numbers are skyrocketing and neither weakening flag nor rapid dissipation flag is on. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:09, July 16, 2011 (UTC) Well, that's because it's interpreting an old rainband of Tokage as a "CDO" :P Oh, and, um, thank's for getting out of the big story Tokage. Darren23 | 05:43, July 16, 2011 (UTC) Absorbed into Ma-on due to a Fujiwhara effect. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 12:15, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :Andrew, I don't think it's called Fujiwhara unless two storms of similar intensity interacts. Tokage was simply absorbed. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:29, July 16, 2011 (UTC) JMA Tropical Depression JMA Tropical Depression New one out there. How strong will this get? And also, just so you know, we missed TD 11 entirely, because it was only six hours long. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 12:15, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :A): It won't strengthen at all B) I have a feeling that this is not a classic TD or a TD at all. Darren23 | 16:41, July 16, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Well, although we have no storms active out there, we have had a few storms and some possible retirement canidates. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine: *Aere - 30% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well. *Songda - 10% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land. *Sarika - 30% - Well, Sarika did cause about a quarter of a billion dollars in damage and 25 deaths, so although it was the weakest storm thus far, it was the most damaging storm thus far as well with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance. *Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general. *Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land. *Ma-on - ?? - It's still out to sea. I can't really give her a particular number because there is no telling what she'll do to Japan. *Tokage - 0% - What an epic fail. That's what I'll say so far. Ryan1000 23:06, July 8, 2011 (UTC) Mine: 'JMA: ' Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed. Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage. Sarika - 95% - EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all. Haima - 24% - Added on to Sarika, but not much. Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE! Ma-on - (I'll tell you after it's gone) Tokage - 0% - Nothing at all. 'PAGASA: ' Amang - 0% - What did this do again? (Bebeng already removed) Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section. Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China. Egay - 2% - See Dodong's section. Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies? Goring - 1% - Ditto. Hanna - 0% - And she did nothing (again). Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC)